As the state continues to grapple with prison overcrowding, it sometimes helps to look back to see what may have happened if certain actions had not been taken.  Often looking back reveals our mistakes, but in this case, history shows that certain management practices undertaken by the Department of Correction and the Parole Commission helped alleviate what could have been a much larger overcrowding and offender management problem.  The old adage that “for every action there is a reaction” certainly holds true in the world of prisons.

When the Forecast Advisory Committee convened to set the incarcerated offender population forecast for FY 2002, it said that by the end of FY 2006, the state would have 8,190 offenders in prison, if historical trends held true, and 10,238 offenders by FY 2010 (refer to the graph below).  Now that we have the advantage of hindsight, we find that the actual incarcerated population for FY 2006 was about 1,200 fewer than what the committee had projected, and that by the end of FY 2010, the offender population will come in at a projected 8,503, about 1,700 less than anticipated.

There are a host of factors that could have contributed to this, but those that are most commonly identified include significant adjustments in management practices – adjustments made in FY 2002 and beyond, after the FY 2002 forecast had been set.  First, the length of stay for those in the retained jurisdiction program in Cottonwood was reduced.  Second, more offenders were paroled by the Parole Commission. Third, the length of stay was reduced among the term population after their parole eligibility dates, resulting in earlier or more timely paroles.  Finally, the department utilized sanctions and diversion programs on a more frequent basis, rather than revoking those on probation or parole due to technical violations.  Each one of these adjustments in the management of the incarcerated offender population contributed to the actual incarcerated population being significantly lower than the projected population.

The changes in offender management have helped the state avoid some significant costs.  If the incarcerated offender population had grown at the rate the FY 2002 forecast predicted, the state would be paying for an additional 1,200 offenders at $18,615 per year per offender, for an estimated total of $22.3 million in FY 2006 dollars.  By FY 2010, this cost would jump to an estimated $31.6 million, in FY 2006 dollars, for the additional 1,700 offenders. 

On occasion its good to look back to see what could have happened if changes had not been made to our course.  The struggle could be much worse.  Further, its good to know that occasionally the “reaction to the action” produces positive results that in the end benefit the taxpayer.

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